Is this the right time to buy, or should I wait?
Updated: March 13, 2026 • 9 min read
If you’ve been asking yourself, “Should I pull the trigger on that tractor now or wait another year?” — you’re in good company. The 2026 equipment market is behaving unlike anything experts have seen in decades [citation:10]. Here’s what you need to know to make a confident decision.
The 2026 market paradox: what’s really happening
For the first time in nearly 40 years of tracking, used equipment values are ticking up while new equipment sales continue to slide [citation:10]. Machinery Pete calls this a “disconnect never seen before.” Here’s the current landscape:
Key market indicators (March 2026)
Industry giant CNH Industrial projects ag equipment retail demand will fall about 5% in 2026, with recovery expected in 2027 [citation:4]. Meanwhile, farm income is projected to slip another 0.7% to $153.4 billion [citation:4].
Should you buy now? The case for and against
Reasons to consider buying now
- Late-model used inventory is tightening — auction volume of 1-3 year old equipment dropped over 50% in 2025 [citation:10]. That means the best low-hour iron may become scarcer.
- Stabilizing used prices — after bottoming in 2024, values have firmed and even risen slightly [citation:8]. Waiting might mean paying more later.
- Dealers motivated to move inventory — with new sales soft, dealers may negotiate on remaining 2025 models or demo units [citation:2].
- Financing flexibility — some lenders offer competitive rates; leasing with a balloon can lower annual payments [citation:8].
Reasons to wait
- Interest rates remain high — borrowing costs are still elevated, squeezing monthly payments [citation:1][citation:4].
- Commodity prices weak — low grain prices mean tighter margins; new equipment payments may not pencil out [citation:4].
- Potential regulatory changes — proposed rollbacks of emissions rules could affect new equipment pricing and used values [citation:10].
- Uncertainty in trade policy — tariffs on components could shift prices either direction [citation:1].
Three strategic timing scenarios
Based on expert interviews from AgDirect, Machinery Pete, and Farm Progress, here’s how different situations might guide your timing [citation:2][citation:8]:
| Your situation | Recommended approach | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Current equipment is reliable but aging | Consider waiting, but prepare | Used market may tighten further, but you have flexibility. Use this year to save and watch for deals. |
| Equipment needs major repair (>30% of value) | Evaluate replacement now | With repair costs high, putting money into an old machine may not make sense [citation:8]. |
| You’re a younger or smaller farmer | Be extra cautious | Tighter credit standards mean “know your numbers” before committing [citation:2]. |
| Looking for high-quality late-model used | Act strategically now | Supply of 1-3 year old equipment is shrinking; waiting 6-12 months may mean fewer choices [citation:10]. |
The interest rate factor: do the math
Brad Zwilling from Illinois FBFM advises: “Know your interest rate impact, especially if you haven’t bought equipment in years” [citation:2]. Here’s a realistic example:
Tractor priced at $150,000 | 5-year term | 20% down
A 2% rate difference adds nearly $200/month. That’s why shopping rates matters [citation:5].
Cory Nordhausen of AgDirect suggests looking at leases with residuals to lower annual payments, but warns “you pay a little more interest because you’re carrying more principal” [citation:8].
The “sweet spot” in today’s market
Industry experts point to several niches that may offer the best value right now:
- Late-model (1-3 year old) equipment — supply has dropped 50%+ at auction, but some dealer lots still have quality units [citation:10].
- 7-10 year old equipment in good condition — farmers are increasingly seeking this segment, and values are firming [citation:10].
- Private party and auction sales — as dealers manage inventory, more good equipment moves through these channels [citation:8].
Unsure about your specific situation?
AgriTruckSupply’s team works with farmers daily to assess equipment value, repair vs. replace decisions, and sourcing hard-to-find parts. We don’t just sell — we advise.
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What the experts are saying
“We probably won’t see, unless something crazy happens, the price of used equipment going down much more. Some of that good late-model equipment is starting to bring a little more money.” — Cory Nordhausen, AgDirect [citation:8]
“If you haven’t already, do that long-term capital budget. Get yourself lined out for the next five to 10 years and know when you think equipment has to be replaced.” — Brad Zwilling, Illinois FBFM [citation:2]
“This is the first time I’ve seen this disconnect — used values up while new sales fall.” — Machinery Pete [citation:10]
Our bottom-line recommendation
For most farmers, 2026 is a year for strategic, selective purchases rather than fleet-wide upgrades. Here’s our framework:
And remember: whether you buy now or later, AgriTruckSupply is your partner for affordable parts, honest advice, and keeping your operation running smoothly.